Overview: The “Friday Massacre” and Pre-Holiday Volatility The final week of January 2026 will be remembered as one of the most volatile periods in recent commodity history. While the week began with bullish momentum, Friday, January 30, saw a dramatic “massacre” across multiple asset classes. Triggered by macroeconomic shifts and pre-holiday profit-taking by Chinese investors, prices for copper and precious metals experienced historic intraday swings.
1. Copper (SHFE CU): A Historic Peak Followed by a Sharp Reversal
Weekly High: Copper prices broke all-time records on Thursday, January 29, with LME prices hitting a staggering $14,527.50/tonne.
The Friday Correction: On January 30, the rally hit a wall as investors booked profits following international macroeconomic signals that strengthened the US dollar.
SHFE Movement: On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), copper cathode prices fell sharply by nearly 3,950 RMB/tonne toward the week’s end, closing near the 100,460 RMB mark.
Supply Dynamics: Despite the price drop, supply remains fundamentally tight due to historically low treatment charges for Chinese smelters and operational disruptions in key mining regions.
2. Aluminum (SHFE AL): Steady Growth Hits Resistance
Price Action: Aluminum spent most of the week maintaining a multi-year high above 24,000 RMB/tonne.
Inventory Build-up: SHFE aluminum inventories saw a significant weekly increase of over 10% (+19,718 MT), signaling a softening in immediate physical demand as Chinese factories began winding down for the Lunar New Year.
Closing Level: By January 30, SHFE aluminum ingot prices retreated to approximately 23,700 RMB/tonne.
3. Stainless Steel (SHFE SS): Narrow Fluctuations and Pre-Holiday Lull
Market Trend: Unlike the dramatic swings in copper, stainless steel remained in a “deep adjustment phase.” Prices hovered in a narrow range around 14,600 RMB/tonne.
Scrap Market: Stainless steel scrap prices edged slightly higher mid-week but flattened by Friday as downstream buyers became cautious due to tight cash flows at the end of the month.
Cost Drivers: High chromium prices and nickel supply chain disruptions provided a floor for prices, preventing a major collapse despite weak end-user orders.
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